The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.4% of the two-party vote share in Nevada, whereas Trump will end up with 48.6%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect 51.5% of the vote.
Historically, Nevada has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts here are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Nevada.