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Jerome model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.2% for Clinton, and 52.8% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect 47.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 53.6% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.8 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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