The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will win 51.9%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 47.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 9.0 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.