Jerome model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 48.1% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, whereas Trump will win 51.9%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 47.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 60.9% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 9.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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