Jerome model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will end up with 45.7%.

Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, you should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.