Jerome model in Indiana: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton, and 56.2% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 43.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Indiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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