Jerome model in Indiana: Trump is in the lead
The Jerome model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton, and 56.2% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 43.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Indiana.