Jerome model in Illinois: Clinton is in the lead

The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 54.9% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, whereas Trump will win 45.1%. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to win only 54.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 5.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Illinois.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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