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Jerome model in Illinois: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.9% for Clinton, and 45.1% for Trump in Illinois. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to gain only 54.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, you should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, you should rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 5.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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