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Jerome model in Idaho: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 32.2% for Clinton, and 67.8% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 67.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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