The Jerome model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 32.2% for Clinton, and 67.8% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 67.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 3.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.