Jerome model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead
The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 48.0% for Clinton, and 52.1% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to gain only 47.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.