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Jerome model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.0% for Clinton, and 52.1% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to obtain 52.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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