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Jerome model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to obtain 49.0% of the vote.

Historically, Florida has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the Jerome model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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