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Jerome model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead


The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to gain 49.0% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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