The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to gain 49.0% of the vote.
Florida is traditionally a battleground state, where Republicans and Democrats have historically achieved similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.