The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in California.
Putting the results in context
Single models often contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 9.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.