The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.2% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will win 51.8%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 51.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.