Jerome model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

Single models can incorporate large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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