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Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead


The Issues and Leaders model is captured in the index models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.8% for Clinton, and 48.2% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single index models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. Relative to numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model Clinton's index model average is 1.5 percentage points better.

The Issues and Leaders model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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