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Iowa: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.3% for Clinton, and 45.7% for Trump in Iowa.

In Iowa, the election outcome is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.6% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 3.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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