DeSart & Holbrook model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 50.3% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, while Trump will win 49.7%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to achieve 50.1% of the vote.

In Iowa, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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