Indiana: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

The Jerome model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 43.8% for Clinton, and 56.2% for Trump in Indiana. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 43.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 55.1% of the two-party vote in Indiana. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Indiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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