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Idaho: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently predicts a major vote share of 32.2% for Clinton, and 67.8% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to collect 67.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 64.0% of the two-party vote in Idaho. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 3.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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