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Hawaii: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 58.1% of the two-party vote share in Hawaii, whereas Trump will win 41.9%.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 69.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 11.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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