The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.7% of the two-party vote share in Florida, while Trump will win 48.3%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win 51.9% of the vote.
Florida is traditionally a swing state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically won similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is viewed as crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Florida. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.