Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 24.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they often incorporate substantial biases. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 59.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Washington. Compared to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.1 percentage points lower. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, Polly's prediction is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.