Results of a new poll carried out by Detroit Free Press were released. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Detroit Free Press poll results
The results show that 46.0% of respondents are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 36.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 1 to October 3 among 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate large errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 56.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 0.4 percentage points higher. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 1.5 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is negligible.