Missouri: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 46.3% of the two-party vote share in Missouri, while Trump will win 53.7%. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to win 46.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.