The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 57.5% of the two-party vote share in Maine, while Trump will win 42.5%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to obtain 42.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can incorporate large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.2% of the two-party vote in Maine. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Maine.