DeSart & Holbrook model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.3% for Trump in Louisiana. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was predicted to garner 57.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.2 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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