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DeSart & Holbrook model in Idaho: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 34.1% for Clinton, and 65.9% for Trump in Idaho. In comparison, on October 22, Clinton was predicted to achieve only 34.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not be too confident the results of a single econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Idaho. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Idaho.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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