DeSart & Holbrook model in Washington: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 58.1% for Clinton, and 41.9% for Trump in Washington. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to end up with 58.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Washington.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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