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DeSart & Holbrook model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 54.3% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will win 45.7%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was still predicted to garner 46.2% of the vote.

New Hampshire is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.2 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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