DeSart & Holbrook model in Missouri: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a major vote share of 46.9% for Clinton, and 53.1% for Trump in Missouri. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win 47.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 53.7% of the two-party vote in Missouri. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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