DeSart & Holbrook model in Maryland: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 62.6% of the two-party vote share in Maryland, whereas Trump will win 37.4%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was still predicted to obtain 37.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 2.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Maryland.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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