DeSart & Holbrook model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 47.3% of the two-party vote share in Georgia, whereas Trump will end up with 52.7%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was predicted to garner 51.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 52.6% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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