The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 58.3% of the two-party vote share in Connecticut, while Trump will end up with 41.7%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was still predicted to garner 41.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Connecticut.