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California: DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 59.9% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will win 40.1%. In comparison, on August 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 40.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be treated with caution, as they often include large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.5 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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