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DeSart & Holbrook model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 39.7% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will end up with 60.3%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to win 60.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models often contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.6% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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