DeSart & Holbrook model in Alaska: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 42.7% for Clinton, and 57.3% for Trump in Alaska. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to achieve 56.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 56.8% of the two-party vote in Alaska. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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