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DeSart & Holbrook model: Clinton tied with Trump in Iowa

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate ending up with 50% of the two-party vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. This is why predictions in this state are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.5% and Trump 49.5% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.6 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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