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Consensus among component methods about election outcome


Polly the parrot currently forecasts a national two-party vote share of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.6% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 60.1% of the vote.

Trump has however continuously become more popular in econometric models, prediction markets and expert surveys. Upward trend has remained constant in expert surveys, he was able to obtain 2.5 percentage points during the past 22 days.

The Citizen forecasts forecast of 52.6% for the Democrats is notably high in comparison to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, Citizen forecasts predicted a vote share of 55.1% for Barack Obama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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