IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD/TIPP poll results
The results show that 42.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out from October 17 to October 22 with 783 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. On October 21 Clinton obtained 50.0% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained only 50.0%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.4%. In comparison to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Trump's poll average is 4.2 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.