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Clinton and Trump neck-and-neck in latest IBD/TIPP poll

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IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

IBD/TIPP poll results
42

Clinton

43

Trump

The results show that 42.0% of participants are going to cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The phone poll was carried out from October 17 to October 22 with 783 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the two candidates do not differ significantly.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of an individual poll. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 49.4% for Clinton and 50.6% for Trump. On October 21 Clinton obtained 50.0% in the IBD/TIPP poll and Trump obtained only 50.0%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 46.4%. In comparison to numbers in the IBD/TIPP poll Trump's poll average is 4.2 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 46.0% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's forecast is 4.6 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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