KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
Of those who replied, 56.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15 with 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 62.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in California. That is, Polly's forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.