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California: Jerome model shows Clinton in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.3% for Clinton, and 46.7% for Trump in California.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.

The Jerome model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in California. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 9.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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