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Arkansas: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead

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The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 48.2% for Clinton, and 51.8% for Trump in Arkansas. In comparison, on October 12, Clinton was predicted to collect only 48.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models often contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

The Jerome model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 5.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Jerome model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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