The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 40.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 59.9%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to garner 60.3% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.