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Arkansas: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 40.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 59.9%. In comparison, on October 22 Trump was still predicted to garner 60.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 2.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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