The Jerome model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 42.8% for Clinton, and 57.2% for Trump in Arizona.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be treated with caution, because they can contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which relies on different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.