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Alabama: Jerome model shows Trump in the lead


The Jerome model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will collect 46.0% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will win 54.0%. In comparison, on October 12 Trump was still predicted to obtain 54.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in Alabama. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 6.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Alabama.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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