Alabama: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 39.2% of the two-party vote share in Alabama, whereas Trump will win 60.8%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 59.8% of the two-party vote in Alabama. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.