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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.2%. In comparison, on October 21, Clinton was predicted to win 52.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 50.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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