The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 47.2%. In comparison, on October 21, Clinton was predicted to win 52.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can include substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
An average of recent econometric models has Clinton at 50.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.