West Virginia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.1% for Clinton, and 60.9% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win 39.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.