West Virginia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.1% for Clinton, and 60.9% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win 39.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they often incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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